Sanctions on China

So what has China done already? Well, they are very angry, and they’ve issued strong threats. They keep pushing their faux agenda of diplomacy, trying to pretend they’re the bigger man just like they audaciously lied when they said they’d become the world’s leader in clean energy moments after Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord. Please also note that China may have had a hunch 14 out of 15 countries would vote in favor of the recent UN Security Council sanctions, meaning China had to be the 15th in favor or they’d look like they were more allied with North Korea than they are pretending to be these days. In short, even if China told the truth, it should be standard protocol to assume it’s a lie because they do it so much. It’s very hard to tell what they are really thinking, which is why you have to look at its actions, which is also hard, and that’s exactly what they want.

In conclusion, these sanctions aren’t really going to be enough. The Trump Administration will likely continue to escalate to more and wider sanctions to reign in support for North Korea’s threats against the United States, but it’s likely that China will be able to survive it.

My suggestion is to hit China where it hurts. They fund 90% of North Korea’s economy. We do have options that would hurt China’s willingness to pay. If we cause an economic downturn, then they would have to choose who to pay. They wouldn’t likely have much domestic instability because they’re so good at controlling that. However, some miners have refused to work because they weren’t getting paid and some people in there to mid- to late-30’s and 40’s are moving back west from cities like Beijing, Qingdao, Guangzhou and others where jobs were plentiful because some of that has dried up. Additionally, Trump has incentivized companies to come back to the United States, and some companies were already planning on leaving. 25% of U.S. companies operating in China are leaving or already have. However, they aren’t exactly coming home like Trump hoped. They’re moving to Vietnam, India and other burgeoning low-cost countries.

All of this is incredibly good. China has engaged in what I called “entanglement.” Some people break this into two parts and call it “engagement and containment,” which goes both ways, but I believe China is not just trying to interact with the United States in order to gain control but cause the United States to hurt itself if it tries to hurt China. If we were to embargo all Chinese goods right now, we wouldn’t even be able to get basic medicine because so much of it is made in China. Almost everything is Made in China. Therefore, we’ve been interdependent. However, getting our companies out of China and dispersed throughout ASEAN countries supports international trade, makes us less dependent on any one country there, supports our allies there instead of a country that treats us horribly and supports those who treat us worse, and deleverages China’s ability to threaten and bully ASEAN countries. Moreover, it could strength those countries’ military capabilities, which would help them help themselves in the South China Sea disputes that China is causing.

I could go on and on and on about China, but the long and short of all this is that we need to smoothly exit China. They can’t really do much about that, and they’ll spend most of the time thinking that we can’t live without them, which gives us time to get that 25% up to way above 50%. By the time they realize what happened, their economy will have slowed down tremendously. Most importantly, if they can’t survive just on their economics-centered military strategy to control the world, then they’ll have to show their true colors with increased bullying and activity via actual military assets. In the process, they’ll lose billions in support from the international community, including more than dozen countries who have recently flipped to face East instead of facing the United States. All of this will unravel, and the world will have no doubt about what and who the Chinese Communist Party government really is. In doing so, of course, they’ll strongly support any action by North Korea, but they’ll be unable to do very much, which will cause North Korea to almost entirely collapse, stall their nuclear program, and frankly leave it vulnerable to attack, though I don’t think anyone would do that at that time.


  1. I don’t know what will Trump do. Simply because Trump is unpredictable and he is, somewhat, not really understanding the role of the U.S. in international stage

    For a God sake reason: Trump has no clear understanding. Now after Irma and Harvey, he has seemed waking up, but again, his arrogance prevents him from doing at least a right thing

    Kim Jong Un, Pakistan and China on the other side are trying to expand the fears and creating opportunities from the madness of Trump. I don’t know what is people thinking, either. But it is time we have to be serious.

    Luckily, the Congress hasn’t lost their mind up and they might help us to drive policies.

    I am no fan of Hillary Clinton. Obama, he has failed to deal what it should have to be. Bill… dunno. But I don’t think I want Bush Jr. to return, he is also a disaster. And Trump is just the last ending of an era of disastrous leaders since Bill Clinton’s era

    The U.S. needs to balance their benefits to gain the goal to stop China’s domination. Russia is too weak to make something again, so China, with 5.000 years of trying to besert other interests, will be a threat for us

  2. Trump is like a 6 year old playing on a playground in grammar school, turning to name-calling because he knows nothing else.

    He has no idea when to be forceful and when not; no idea how to use global-economic power, no idea how to professionally communicate with people, so he uses twitter to message his feelings of the day.

    He threatens the use of military, mostly sounding like a fool in doing so, and even when he uses it, the moron calls and tells them “we’re going to attack your airport, you better get your planes out of harms way.” The, the idiot uses $18 million dollars worth of cruise missiles instead of a stealth bomber that could actually do something to the runway. He must be buddies with the CEO of Raytheon.

    The clown has turned the U.S. into a pariah amongst all other nations, including our own allies.

    1. Thank you for your comment, Bob. He certainly doesn’t know what he’s doing. I assume you’re referring to the strike on Syria. While I think something was necessary, that strike certainly lacked the surgical precision and informed capabilities of a modern military.

      We’re not pariahs yet, and I have hope. We’re almost 25% through his first and hopefully only term, and our allies have acknowledged they stand with our people even when they don’t agree with our President.

  3. I really like the way you write about politics. I found it both amusing and informative, and that’s the best kind of content. I also really like watching this power struggle, this dance, if you will, between the US and PRC play out. Sometimes I fantasize about how in a different world the US AND North Korea might find ways to really screw China over.

    1. Thank you, Allison. I appreciate that. I want my blog to be engaging and easy to read. Why use dry language and big words when most people don’t talk that way?

      That’s a really interesting premise. I’ve been studying China since 2006 and have paid much more attention to Pyongyang since 2013. Northeast Asia is probably the most dangerous and least considered hotspot. The Middle East is a problem, but Northeast Asia, where Russia, China, and North Korea all border each other like a tri-state mafia very serious, and I’m glad the world has finally noticed.

    2. “Tri-state mafia.” I like that. If I ever write anything about those three and call it that, I’m definitely crediting you.

    1. Thank you, Pete. I hope you enjoy my blog. If you have additional information about any of my posts, I’d be happy to hear from you.

    2. Thank you. I checked it out. I really like it. I’d appreciate your comments on how Trump is changing our standing in the international community. As you say, Bangladesh is under water right now. The difference this time is they might be expecting Trump to do nothing about it even after we’re done recovering from Harvey, Irma, and Jose.

    3. Trump is viewed as a rather buffoonish figure in Europe. They don’t take him at all seriously, which I think is a grave error. Some feel he won’t see out the term, but I have a feeling he could well be reelected.
      When he won, I think most of us believed he would take an isolationist stance, and draw America back into a pre-1941 style of ‘Made In America’ politics. However, he went off on a tangent, and seems to want to fight everyone.
      Some Americans have long believed in less government interference, less control, and people doing well by hard work. What’s mine is mine, etc. I think his current policies will appeal to them.
      That said, I was no fan of Clinton either, and found it laughable that Sanders was considered to be a Socialist. Then again, some Americans thought Obama was a Communist…
      Europe, as well as America is moving to the Right, on a tide of populist rhetoric and xenophobia. Trump is the best example of how this works, and perhaps why it should not.
      Regards, Pete.

    4. Thank you for your comment. Things are changing in the West. We’ve seen that globalization really turned into a one-way pipeline to China, which turned into major opportunities for them to control the world, and they’ve done a lot to further that goal.

      I’ve been following this for more than a decade now, and I think we’re seeing some protectionism because we’re feeling a lot of uncertainty. If we can diversify or supply chain so we’re sourcing from multiple Asian countries, we’ll do well. Currently, with all our eggs in the same Chinese basket, we’re at their mercy, and for the past 2,000 years, that feeling of total control has been the goal of every Chinese leader.

      You seem to know a lot about what’s going on. I look forward to reading more of your comments.

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