I saved a special part of China for this section. If there were ever a South China Sea military conflict that appears to be conventional war, something that is just exchanging fire with the enemy, Trump has no idea what Russia will do. Of course, he thinks he does because he thinks he has a “very good brain” (OMG, c’mon), but he will be very wrong about this. Either transparently, through a network in which Russia calls the shots on the network’s defense of China, or through hard-to-prove actions, Russia will not support the U.S. in the South China Sea.
Let’s not jump to Russia mirroring what they did in Syria. That would happen in a situation in which there’s fighting in North Korean territory and Russia says they’ll attack North Korea but actually attacks South Korean troops or something and they even use ground troops of Siberian descent, who look East Asian and could wear South Korean uniforms, or other such Syria-esque behavior. However, that’s a bit different. I don’t really have information to explain what Russia might do in that situation. In fact, it’s my error for focusing on just South Korea, North Korea, China, and the U.S. when it comes to a war in North Korea whether in the air or with troops on the ground and from which countries these troops come. What if Russia provides troops? To whom? In what way–Navy, Air Force, ground troops, others? I haven’t looked into this, and that’s a problem.
In short, Trump is playing a very dangerous game with Putin. Putin is in total control of this situation. Russia has always been a country that doesn’t really do much except fight wars and prepare to fight wars and funding such wars with the sale of natural resources such that, if they someday don’t have those resources, they’d be a country that pretty much does nothing. Frankly, that day wouldn’t happen soon because global warming will allow them to extract natural resources in places where they can’t do so now, and this global warming will allow a trade route from China to Europe by traveling in protected Russian ally territory through the whole trip. China could completely block trade through the South China Sea and do their own trading with Europe, providing troops through their trains that they will probably guard with security employees that they “import” (Chinese terminology for sending citizens abroad) from China to various posts along the tracks and claiming that no one else is allowed to see the trains. Therefore, the South China Sea won’t be necessary, China will control shipping and rail transit throughout Asia and Europe and likely treat the United States as a place to eventually go whence it’s weak enough.
“I think Trump has a dangerous combination of thinking he can control literally everyone, including world leaders, and getting closer to Putin because he wants to use Putin as a way to corner China by neutralizing Russia’s alliance with China by packaging such a great deal that Trump could do things that Putin would actually support even though it seriously harms Russia.”
While I agree with you on everything you wrote here, I don’t share your optimism that Trump is even remotely capable of strategic thinking/politics.
Rather; I see Trump as the blindfolded man playing blind man’s bluff. But; he’s got an additional impediment – he’s got ear plugs in his ears as well, so everything he does is nothing but a stab in the dark in hopes that it accomplishes something, anything.
The ONLY thing he knows, is how to behave like a child, seeking revenge against Obama and the Clintons through Executive Orders. I can’t recall even one bill he supported or began by Trump that ever made it’s way through Congress and that’s simply because he’s extraordinarily unintelligent, inept leader with zero skills in leadership.
Extremely narcissistic, sociopathic, illiterate human being, he’s got one of the most serious of id issues I’ve ever seen in public life. Everything he has done so far is to repeal as many Obama’s accomplishments he can through Executive Order, for he has no clue how to work with Congress. That and obsess over crowd sizes, “3 million fraudulent voters” to make him the most popular president too.
You are absolutely correct in stating he thinks he can control anyone and everyone. You need only look at one of his remarks to confirm this; “if Chicago doesn’t fix their violence, then I’ll send in the Feds”. Even this is a jab at Obama, who came from Illinois. There are many cities far more violent than Chicago: East St Louis, Mo; Camden, NJ; Detroit, Mi; Alexandria, LA; Wilmington, DE, Memphis, TN; Flint, MI; Saginaw, MI; Oakland, CA; St Louis, MO; Ardmore, OK; Birmingham; Al, etc., etc., etc. In fact; Chicago doesn’t even appear in the top 20 lists of most dangerous cities to live https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/blog/top100dangerous-2016
Now, he’s taking his arrogance internationally, “warning” EL Salvador that “if they don’t get their violence under control, he’ll send in the U.S. military. I mean WTF???? Who does he think he is? And El Salvador share that sentiment, for the stated they’d take this as an act of war and the Association of American States would likely back El Salvador.